Moody’s changes outlook on Tunisia to stable from negative; affirms Caa2 ratings [Upd 1]

Tunis: Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has on Saturday changed the outlook on the Government of Tunisia to stable from negative and affirmed the Caa2 long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings. Moody's Ratings ascribes its decision to a noticeable reduction in the current account deficit compared with its historical levels and the agency's previous forecasts, which has sustained the level of foreign exchange reserves and helped repay two successive international issues in October 2023 and February 2024, according to a Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) press release. Moody's has also changed the outlook on the Central Bank of Tunisia to stable from negative, and affirmed the senior unsecured ratings of Caa2 and the senior unsecured shelf rating of (P)Caa2. The Central Bank of Tunisia is legally responsible for the payments on all of the government's bonds. These debt instruments are issued on behalf of the government. The change in outlook to stable reflects Moody's view that the pressures that Tuni sia's government faces will not materially increase or decrease beyond what is consistent with a Caa2 rating level, which incorporates a non-negligible probability of default. A material reduction of the current account deficit has supported the resilience of the Central Bank of Tunisia's (CBT) foreign-exchange reserve buffer, which remains an important if finite backstop for forthcoming external debt amortizations, as demonstrated by the repayment out of reserves of a pound 850 million eurobond in February 2024. The affirmation of the Caa2 ratings reflects an elevated degree of uncertainty over financing sources amid persistently large financing needs, including a still-high fiscal deficit and challenging debt maturity profile. Tunisia's country risk ceilings remain unchanged at B2 for the local-currency ceiling and Caa1 for the foreign-currency ceiling. The three-notch gap between the local currency ceiling and the sovereign rating reflects relatively predictable, albeit weakened, institutions; balanced against a broad public sector footprint, external imbalances and a challenging political and social environment which hampers the business environment. Foreign exchange reserves amount to $7.4 billion as of February 2024 - broadly unchanged from their January 2023 level and equivalent to around 3.5 months of import cover - even after the repayment in quick succession of two eurobond maturities of pound 500 million in October 2023 and pound 850 million on 17 February. Moody's expects the current account deficit to widen to around 4.5% of GDP this year as imports partially recover, this will remain below the average of close to 8% of GDP recorded between 2011 and 2023 and contain overall external financing needs. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Tunisia-Cameroon Business Forum to be held in Yaoundé on April 23 and 24

Tunis: The Tunisia-Cameroon Business Forum will be held in Yaoundé on April 23 and 24, 2024, on the initiative of the Export Promotion Agency (CEPEX) and the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts (UTICA), on the sidelines of the Tunisia-Cameroon Joint Commission. The programme will include a plenary session and B-to-B meetings with Cameroonian operators in the public works and construction materials, agriculture and agri-food, medical and pharmaceutical, ICT, etc. sectors, said CEPEX. Tunisian companies wishing to take part in this event must confirm their participation before April 4, 2024. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

New measures in foreign exchange law will help boost demand for foreign currency (Hadidane)

Tunis: The new measures in the new foreign exchange law, once approved by the Assembly of People's Representatives (ARP), will increase the demand for foreign currency to open accounts on platforms or to carry out export operations, said economic expert and financial market specialist Moez Hadidane. The move will have a positive impact in the medium term, according to the expert. "These investments will open up prospects for Tunisian companies wishing to invest abroad, as well as for young people, which will have an impact on the demand for foreign currency," Hdidane explained in a video interview with TAP news agency. He added that these foreign currency resources will generate foreign currency profits, which (profits) will then be deposited in accounts with an authorised intermediary, as required by law, leading to a rise in foreign currency reserves. He stressed that the new law will generate inflows and outflows of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market, where movements are currently limited. He considered that the new law will allow foreign investors unlimited freedom to purchase bonds issued by the state or other companies, pointing out that currently the purchase operation is limited to 20% of annual issues. The expert said the draft foreign exchange law will enable foreign investors to raise funds, which will consequently encourage them to acquire debt securities by allowing flexibility in the exit and re-export of foreign currency. For Hadidane, the problem of foreign investment is related to the business climate, especially the exchange rate of the dinar, suggesting the introduction of measures to guarantee the stability of the national currency as an incentive for investment. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Draft foreign exchange law unifies legal framework to boost investment (Hadidane)

Tunis: The draft of the new foreign exchange code has made changes to the form and content of the current text, which has been in force for more than five decades, as well as to the decrees and texts relating to foreign exchange, said economic expert and financial market specialist Moez Hadidane. In a video interview with TAP news agency, he pointed out that the changes brought about by the new foreign exchange code will mainly concern the form of the text. The foreign exchange market in Tunisia is governed by the Foreign Exchange Code and Decree No. 608 of 1977 on foreign exchange and foreign trade, in addition to a series of laws and texts published by the Ministry of Finance and the BCT and sent to authorised intermediaries (banks and the Tunisian Post Office), the expert pointed out. He added that "the new draft foreign exchange code will replace these texts, which will be merged into a single code, thus avoiding repetition and overlap in certain procedures". In terms of content, he noted that the dra ft law has introduced a fundamental change, especially since the current regulations do not allow the free export of foreign currency, except in two cases. The first case concerns current operations, which include foreign trade operations, transport, operations linked to capital income and expenses (subject to a ceiling) for stays abroad for tourism, study, health and business purposes. The second case concerns the actual net proceeds from the sale or liquidation of capital invested by means of foreign currency imports, even if these proceeds exceed the capital initially invested. The expert pointed out that any other operation is subject to prior authorisation, known as "general authorisation", by the Minister of Finance after obtaining the opinion of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT). He went on to say that the new law has introduced major changes to this section, as it extends the principle of free export (without authorisation) of foreign currency by residents as part of their investments abroad. This will help to open up new markets (outlets) for Tunisian companies and to internationalise them in order to generate wealth and promote growth. This new framework will make it possible to stimulate entrepreneurship, improve the business and investment climate, strengthen the competitiveness of companies and help them conquer foreign markets. Hadidane concluded that whether or not there would be a cap on the amount that could be invested abroad would depend on the final version of the foreign exchange law that the government would submit to the Assembly of People's Representatives (ARP). Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Earth Hour Saturday at 8:30 pm

Tunis: Earth Hour, the world's largest mobilisation for nature, organised by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), will take place on Saturday at 8:30 pm. Every year since 2007, on one of the last Saturdays in March at 8.30pm local time, millions of people around the world join forces to raise awareness of the planet's natural crises by switching off their lights for one hour. More than 185 countries take part each year. Thousands of iconic landmarks switch off for a symbolic hour to show their collective support for protecting the planet. In 2023, WWF is proposing to extend the initiative by inviting everyone to use the Hour for the Planet to do something, however small, to help the climate and the planet. "Our planet is in crisis, but there is still time to prevent biodiversity loss and climate disruption from reaching catastrophic levels. Every hour counts if we are to reverse the loss of nature by 2030. Spending 60 minutes doing something positive for the planet can generate thousands, if not millions, of ho urs of action and awareness," the fund stresses. The latest Living Planet report, published by WWF in October 2022, reveals a devastating 69% decline in vertebrate wildlife populations in less than fifty years. It also shows that unless global warming is limited to 1.5°C, climate change will become the main driver of biodiversity loss in the coming decades. The planet is therefore facing a double emergency: climate change and biodiversity loss. With this in mind, WWF is calling on institutions and the general public to take action to protect biodiversity. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

New foreign exchange law will have positive impact on Tunisia’s relations with donors (Hadidane)

Tunis: The new foreign exchange law will have a positive impact on Tunisia's relations with donors, particularly the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has repeatedly called for reforms in the foreign exchange market, according to economic expert Moez Hadidane. Indeed, Tunisia has made significant progress in liberalising the dinar, one of the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in addition to capital liberalisation, he added in a video interview with TAP. "This measure will have a positive impact on Tunisia's relations with donors, including the IMF, but the main reforms required relate in particular to the state budget and other areas such as subsidies and public enterprises," he said. He added that the adoption of the foreign exchange law will help Tunisia to mobilise foreign currency and increase its reserves in the medium term. "If we get the scenario right, as far as the provisions of the new code are concerned, Tunisia could mobilise the TND 1.9 billion that it would have rec eived from the IMF, from Tunisian investors abroad and from international accounts," he said. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

RFR company currently completing work on Line D

Tunis: The Tunis Rapid Railway (RFR) company is currently working to complete work on Line D, which will link "Tunis city" to "Mnihla". Work on this line, originally scheduled to begin in 2016, has been blocked in the city of Bardo due to opposition from some residents, civil society and some MPs to the formula adopted for the construction of the Bardo section. The termination of the contract with the Italian company in charge of the project for failing to meet its obligations also contributed to the blockage of this project. The situation was further aggravated by the decision of the city council to stop work in 2019. A meeting of the Cabinet meeting on November 10, 2023 ordered the resumption of work in accordance with the original terms of the contract, in application of the law, in order to ensure the progressive operation of the line from September 2024 and the operation of the entire line by 2026." Dhafer Sghiri, Member of Parliament for the Ettahrir neighbourhood - Bardo constituency, explained the opposition of local residents and civil society to the choice made for the construction of the section relating to the town of Bardo by the option chosen for an intersection between the RFR line and the road, simply by installing mobile barriers. In a statement to TAP, he stressed that "this option was chosen from among 7 others because it was the least expensive, without taking into account the risks it could create for the safety of citizens and road users". In his opinion, "the chosen option will also divide and disfigure the city of Bardo, which is known for its many historical sites and monuments". For his part, Lotfi Chouba, CEO of the RFR company, explained that Line D, which runs parallel to the railway line, was built on public land owned by the SNCFT, which explains the problem with its construction. "We have built two RFR lines parallel to the railway, bringing the number of railway lines to three," he added. He went on to say that the project had been designed using a participatory approach, b ased on in-depth studies and taking into account all the essential criteria relating to efficiency, cost and safety. According to the final version of the project, "RFR trains will run according to timetables to be defined at a later stage and at low speeds to ensure the safety of pedestrians and vehicles", said Chouba, adding that there will be two crossings of the railway line with the road. According to the official, the first phase of this line will be put into operation gradually, in September 2024, with the remaining components of the project to be completed by 2026. He also pointed out that it was necessary to speed up the completion of the works and the gradual opening of the line in view of the worsening transport crisis in Tunisia due to the deterioration of the transport fleet. He added that the line would help alleviate traffic congestion in the city of Bardo, especially as the train has a capacity of 2,400 passengers per trip. Line D is 12.2 km long and connects with line A for 2.3 km to Man oubia station. This line has seven stations after Manoubia, namely Melassine, Erraoudha, Bardo, Bortal, Manouba, Cité les Oranges and Gobaa. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Weather mostly cloudy with some localised fog on Saturday night

Tunis: The weather on Saturday night will be characterised by the appearance of low clouds in most areas, followed by local fog late in the night, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (INM). Winds will be light to moderate from the south in most areas. Temperatures will be between 8 and 12 degrees Celsius in the western regions of the north and centre, and between 14 and 18 degrees Celsius in the rest of the country. Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Partly cloudy in most regions

Tunis: March 23 (TAP) - The weather on Saturday is locally misty in the morning then partly cloudy in most regions to a bit cloudy.

The wind is blowing north light to moderate in the north and east in the midland and south.

The sea is a bit choppy in the north and wavy to a bit choppy elsewhere.

Highs are ranging between 18°C and 24°C, reaching 26°C in western south

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse

Moody’s changes outlook on Tunisia to stable from negative; affirms Caa2 ratings [Upd 1]

Tunis: Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has on Saturday changed the outlook on the Government of Tunisia to stable from negative and affirmed the Caa2 long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings.

Moody's Ratings ascribes its decision to a noticeable reduction in the current account deficit compared with its historical levels and the agency's previous forecasts, which has sustained the level of foreign exchange reserves and helped repay two successive international issues in October 2023 and February 2024, according to a Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) press release.

Moody's has also changed the outlook on the Central Bank of Tunisia to stable from negative, and affirmed the senior unsecured ratings of Caa2 and the senior unsecured shelf rating of (P)Caa2.

The Central Bank of Tunisia is legally responsible for the payments on all of the government's bonds. These debt instruments are issued on behalf of the government. The change in outlook to stable reflects Moody's view that the pressures that Tunisia's government faces will not materially increase or decrease beyond what is consistent with a Caa2 rating level, which incorporates a non-negligible probability of default.

A material reduction of the current account deficit has supported the resilience of the Central Bank of Tunisia's (CBT) foreign-exchange reserve buffer, which remains an important if finite backstop for forthcoming external debt amortizations, as demonstrated by the repayment out of reserves of a pound 850 million eurobond in February 2024.

The affirmation of the Caa2 ratings reflects an elevated degree of uncertainty over financing sources amid persistently large financing needs, including a still-high fiscal deficit and challenging debt maturity profile.

Tunisia's country risk ceilings remain unchanged at B2 for the local-currency ceiling and Caa1 for the foreign-currency ceiling. The three-notch gap between the local currency ceiling and the sovereign rating reflects relatively predictable, albeit weakened, institutions; balanced against a broad public sector footprint, external imbalances and a challenging political and social environment which hampers the business environment.

Foreign exchange reserves amount to $7.4 billion as of February 2024 - broadly unchanged from their January 2023 level and equivalent to around 3.5 months of import cover - even after the repayment in quick succession of two eurobond maturities of pound 500 million in October 2023 and pound 850 million on 17 February.

Moody's expects the current account deficit to widen to around 4.5% of GDP this year as imports partially recover, this will remain below the average of close to 8% of GDP recorded between 2011 and 2023 and contain overall external financing needs.

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse