Nairobi: An intensifying El Ni±o weather pattern threatens to bring severe flooding, disease outbreaks, heatwaves, and drought to communities across East Africa and Asia in the coming weeks, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) warned today. Families in Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are among the most impacted by these impending crises.
According to African Press Organization, in Somalia, June data indicated a 60% chance of above-average rainfall across the south and southwest, with a crucial update expected on July 15 that will influence funding and planning for anticipatory action. The overlapping crises of drought and displacement have already left 4.8 million people in Somalia in urgent need of aid, and this number is expected to rise as El Ni±o-induced flooding exacerbates the drought in the coming months. A flood in 2023 destroyed nearly 13,000 tons of crops and damaged entire towns and cities, with experts warning that a similar storm would cause even more damage this time, as communities already weakened by drought and reduced humanitarian funding have fewer resources and coping mechanisms.
Heavy rain in the Ethiopian highlands combined with local Deyr season rains could rapidly elevate river levels along Somalia's two main waterways, potentially contaminating water sources and increasing the risk of cholera and acute watery diarrhea. The anticipated impacts are regional, as Kenya faces an 80-82% chance of El Ni±o persisting through 2026. This could lead to a high risk of flooding and landslides later in the year, prompting the Kenyan government to activate its national response framework. Uganda anticipates a similar transition, with fears of displacement and disease after more than 413,000 people were affected in the last El Ni±o cycle.
"We're watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs," said Bob Kitchen, IRC Vice President for Emergencies. "Acting now, before the rain falls, is far cheaper and far more humane than responding after people have lost everything."
The same El Ni±o pattern is expected to affect Asia differently, reducing seasonal rainfall and raising temperatures across Pakistan, even as northern mountain areas face sudden glacier-melt floods. Meanwhile, Bangladesh's monsoon season has already turned deadly this year, with landslides and flooding killing at least 15 Rohingya refugees living in the Cox's Bazar camps and displacing more than 10,000 people since the start of July. In Afghanistan, El Ni±o conditions are expected to result in above-average rainfall, putting large areas of the country at risk of flooding. In response to the increased climate risk, the IRC's anticipatory action model is already delivering cash to at-risk families ahead of disasters, helping them buy food, pay for water, and protect livestock instead of facing impossible choices like pulling children from school or arranging early marriages for their daughters.
In the face of a strengthening El Ni±o, the IRC is calling on donors and governments to fund more anticipatory action activities across East Africa and Asia now, rather than waiting for disaster to strike. Early funding would allow the IRC and partners to reach families in impacted areas with cash, clean water, and early warnings before the worst hits, thereby saving lives, preserving resources, and reducing suffering.